Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.948183 1.105865 1.281239 1.490714 1.734110 2.008022 2.339735
2025-01-05 0.666680 0.868387 1.118049 1.449641 1.878536 2.414749 3.136597
2025-01-12 0.512371 0.721477 1.000538 1.399925 1.956922 2.706601 3.793507
2025-01-19 0.412239 0.618561 0.911327 1.356601 2.016814 2.960258 4.412954
2025-01-26 0.357619 0.566891 0.879988 1.381849 2.166300 3.346591 5.260616
2025-02-02 0.330284 0.549825 0.894151 1.472478 2.419918 3.912281 6.446380
2025-02-09 0.298524 0.519739 0.881993 1.517020 2.602973 4.386604 7.545279
2025-02-16 0.267841 0.486133 0.858199 1.536810 2.744379 4.806085 8.602007
2025-02-23 0.238922 0.450882 0.825955 1.535925 2.847172 5.168408 9.600334
2025-03-02 0.212550 0.416175 0.789487 1.521342 2.921312 5.485683 10.552531
2025-03-09 0.192061 0.389436 0.763646 1.522056 3.021882 5.859389 11.650726
2025-03-16 0.168094 0.352488 0.713540 1.469020 3.011502 6.021561 12.359127
2025-03-23 0.162979 0.353344 0.738197 1.569367 3.320893 6.845366 14.497962
2025-03-30 0.143795 0.322296 0.694850 1.525245 3.331129 7.077687 15.465591
2025-04-06 0.126496 0.292769 0.650637 1.472934 3.316316 7.254834 16.336528
2025-04-13 0.112034 0.267453 0.612032 1.427368 3.309412 7.446109 17.259724
2025-04-20 0.104713 0.257492 0.605954 1.453922 3.466746 8.012173 19.091825
2025-04-27 0.102763 0.259964 0.628369 1.549237 3.794284 8.996851 22.011156
2025-05-04 0.097675 0.254051 0.630380 1.596080 4.012762 9.756370 24.492645
2025-05-11 0.091465 0.244439 0.622245 1.616893 4.170278 10.390115 26.747099
2025-05-18 0.084665 0.232331 0.606359 1.615962 4.272906 10.902114 28.759777
2025-05-25 0.077800 0.219092 0.585932 1.600626 4.336599 11.324901 30.597276
2025-06-01 0.072354 0.208959 0.572267 1.601377 4.442551 11.866869 32.814626